Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Barzal 41.4% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Larkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Larkin
Barzal
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
2
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Larkin
Barzal
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
40.4% (463)
+11.3%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
34.2% (38)
+24.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
28.6% (7)
+19.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barzal
Home
52.4% (647)
38.1% (244)
Away
52.7% (643)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Larkin
Barzal
P1
52.2%
46.6%
P2
53.1%
35.7%
P3
51.7%
37.7%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |