Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Joseph shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Joseph 40.7% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 93.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 89.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 90.7%
90.7%
9.3%
Larkin
Joseph
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Larkin
Joseph
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Joseph
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Joseph
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Joseph
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Joseph
1
2
Larkin
Joseph
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Joseph
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
37.2% (336)
+14.5%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
57.1% (7)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
47.6% (21)
+2.6%
On even strength, Larkin has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Joseph shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Joseph is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (219).
Home / Away
Larkin
Joseph
Home
54.0% (6,238)
38.8% (183)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
37.6% (181)
By Period
Larkin
Joseph
P1
52.7%
36.2%
P2
53.1%
28.8%
P3
52.1%
53.1%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Joseph
42.0%▬
41.0%
38.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 1 | 12:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Mathieu Joseph |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 05:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 13:04 | Neutral | Mathieu Joseph |
| Feb 3, 2021 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Mathieu Joseph |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 16:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |