Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Zibanejad 49.3% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 80.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Larkin
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
Larkin
Zibanejad
Last 10: Larkin 9-1 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
1
Larkin
Zibanejad
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Zibanejad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
50.9% (913)
+5.0%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
59.0% (39)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
37.5% (160)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Zibanejad is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Larkin
Zibanejad
Home
56.0% (654)
51.1% (536)
Away
54.8% (639)
47.6% (576)
By Period
Larkin
Zibanejad
P1
54.4%
50.1%
P2
55.9%
47.3%
P3
55.2%
50.7%
OT
64.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 01:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |