Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 71.8%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 50.3%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 50.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Larkin
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
12
(25 meetings)
13
12
Larkin
Zibanejad
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
1
Larkin
Zibanejad
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
5
Larkin
Zibanejad
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
6
Larkin
Zibanejad
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
52.9% (870)
-0.3%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
53.5% (43)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
46.2% (143)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Larkin
Zibanejad
Home
54.7% (783)
55.1% (501)
Away
54.3% (816)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Larkin
Zibanejad
P1
55.9%
57.5%
P2
56.1%
50.7%
P3
51.1%
47.9%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 11:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:39 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 12:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |