Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Rantanen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Rantanen 50.8% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rantanen 87.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 89.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.7%
Result
Mikko Rantanen favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Larkin
Rantanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Larkin
Rantanen
Last 9: Larkin 5-4 Rantanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Rantanen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Rantanen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Rantanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Rantanen
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
51.0% (1,522)
+0.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
50.8% (484)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
14.3% (7)
+35.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +35.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rantanen shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Rantanen is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Larkin
Rantanen
Home
54.0% (6,238)
53.0% (1,067)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
48.3% (946)
By Period
Larkin
Rantanen
P1
52.7%
49.0%
P2
53.1%
51.3%
P3
52.1%
51.8%
OT
58.4%
57.8%
Final 5 min
53.2%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 15:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 12:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 3 | 19:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Neutral | Mikko Rantanen |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 16:01 | Defensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |