Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Schmaltz 45.0% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 75.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 94.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 90.3%
90.3%
9.7%
Larkin
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larkin
Schmaltz
Last 5: Larkin 4-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Larkin
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Schmaltz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
37.7% (53)
+15.9%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
40.9% (44)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
66.7% (3)
-18.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Schmaltz is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (77).
Home / Away
Larkin
Schmaltz
Home
56.6% (700)
34.7% (49)
Away
52.1% (655)
45.1% (51)
By Period
Larkin
Schmaltz
P1
55.4%
25.9%
P2
54.7%
46.2%
P3
52.7%
42.1%
OT
59.1%
46.7%
Final 5 min
57.0%
34.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 08:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |