Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 63.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 89.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 79.9%
79.9%
20.1%
Larkin
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
13
(31 meetings)
18
13
Larkin
Schmaltz
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
3
7
Larkin
Schmaltz
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
10
2
Larkin
Schmaltz
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
4
Larkin
Schmaltz
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
41.2% (3,399)
+10.5%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
47.1% (649)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
47.8% (134)
+2.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Home / Away
Larkin
Schmaltz
Home
54.0% (6,238)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Larkin
Schmaltz
P1
52.7%
41.1%
P2
53.1%
42.9%
P3
52.1%
43.0%
OT
58.4%
42.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 11:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:15 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 14:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 17:43 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |