Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 56.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 84.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 71.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Larkin
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Larkin
Schmaltz
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
3
Larkin
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
45.9% (665)
+5.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
46.8% (111)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
50.0% (24)
-1.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Larkin
Schmaltz
Home
52.4% (647)
44.7% (409)
Away
52.7% (643)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Larkin
Schmaltz
P1
52.2%
40.3%
P2
53.1%
47.6%
P3
51.7%
51.0%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 11:29 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 08:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:15 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 14:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |