Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 53.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 79.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 61.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Larkin
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Schmaltz
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Larkin
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
48.1% (268)
+4.5%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
50.5% (91)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
58.8% (17)
-2.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Larkin
Schmaltz
Home
54.7% (783)
49.0% (206)
Away
54.3% (816)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Larkin
Schmaltz
P1
55.9%
53.6%
P2
56.1%
46.2%
P3
51.1%
50.4%
OT
66.7%
16.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 17:43 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |