Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Thomas 49.9% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 73.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Larkin
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Larkin
Thomas
Last 7: Larkin 6-1 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Thomas
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
49.0% (910)
+2.8%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
53.5% (142)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
53.3% (75)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Thomas is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thomas
Home
55.6% (662)
47.3% (514)
Away
48.3% (542)
52.0% (613)
By Period
Larkin
Thomas
P1
49.9%
50.4%
P2
52.7%
47.5%
P3
53.0%
51.4%
OT
68.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
49.3%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 05:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 12:33 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 03:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |