Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.8%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Thomas 54.5% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 56.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Larkin
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
9
(20 meetings)
11
9
Larkin
Thomas
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
2
Larkin
Thomas
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
4
5
Larkin
Thomas
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Larkin
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
55.3% (990)
-2.7%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
54.2% (190)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
52.5% (158)
+3.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thomas
Home
54.7% (783)
55.1% (690)
Away
54.3% (816)
54.5% (648)
By Period
Larkin
Thomas
P1
55.9%
55.5%
P2
56.1%
56.4%
P3
51.1%
51.5%
OT
66.7%
69.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:13 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |