Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Thomas 51.6% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 20-19 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 54.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Larkin
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
19
(39 meetings)
20
19
Larkin
Thomas
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
6
Larkin
Thomas
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
6
8
Larkin
Thomas
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
5
Larkin
Thomas
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
51.1% (5,350)
+0.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
55.8% (921)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
49.9% (691)
+0.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,919).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thomas
Home
54.0% (6,238)
50.9% (3,458)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
52.3% (3,504)
By Period
Larkin
Thomas
P1
52.7%
50.6%
P2
53.1%
52.9%
P3
52.1%
50.8%
OT
58.4%
59.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:13 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |