Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Thomas 52.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 69.3%
Defensive zone
Thomas 71.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 72.8%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 71.3%
28.7%
71.3%
Larkin
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Larkin
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
53.2% (1,166)
+2.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
56.9% (262)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
48.4% (221)
-2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thomas
Home
56.0% (654)
51.6% (830)
Away
54.8% (639)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Larkin
Thomas
P1
54.4%
52.7%
P2
55.9%
55.6%
P3
55.2%
50.6%
OT
64.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |