Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 51.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Thomas 51.7% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 58.7%
Defensive zone
Thomas 53.1%
Neutral zone
Thomas 59.1%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Larkin
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Larkin
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Larkin
Thomas
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
50.1% (615)
+1.6%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
62.2% (98)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
52.6% (114)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thomas
Home
52.4% (647)
51.9% (374)
Away
52.7% (643)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Larkin
Thomas
P1
52.2%
49.2%
P2
53.1%
55.3%
P3
51.7%
50.6%
OT
61.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |