Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Thomas 52.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 55.3%
Defensive zone
Thomas 55.0%
Neutral zone
Thomas 60.4%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Larkin
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Thomas
Last 5: Larkin 2-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
2
Larkin
Thomas
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
53.6% (924)
+0.0%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
55.2% (181)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
44.0% (116)
+4.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Thomas is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Home / Away
Larkin
Thomas
Home
56.6% (700)
53.6% (606)
Away
52.1% (655)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Larkin
Thomas
P1
55.4%
48.2%
P2
54.7%
55.3%
P3
52.7%
55.2%
OT
59.1%
47.1%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:42 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |