Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 53.1%). Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Monahan 52.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 53.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Monahan
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Larkin
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
51.5% (641)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
62.8% (129)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
33.3% (9)
+14.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
55.6% (662)
53.9% (362)
Away
48.3% (542)
52.5% (417)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
49.9%
48.0%
P2
52.7%
57.0%
P3
53.0%
54.1%
OT
68.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |