Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 54.9%). Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Monahan 54.5% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 50.7%
Defensive zone
Monahan 51.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.8%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Larkin
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Larkin
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
57.1% (871)
-1.2%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
53.1% (262)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
44.6% (139)
+1.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
56.0% (654)
55.3% (644)
Away
54.8% (639)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
54.4%
53.9%
P2
55.9%
55.3%
P3
55.2%
54.4%
OT
64.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 12:38 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |