Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 53.1%). Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Monahan 52.8% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Larkin
Monahan
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Larkin
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
5
6
Larkin
Monahan
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Larkin
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
53.2% (823)
-1.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
55.3% (159)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
48.4% (95)
-0.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
52.4% (647)
54.6% (529)
Away
52.7% (643)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
52.2%
49.0%
P2
53.1%
55.4%
P3
51.7%
53.6%
OT
61.3%
61.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |