Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Monahan 52.4% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 59.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 57.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 67.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Larkin
Monahan
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Monahan
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
4
Larkin
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
6
Larkin
Monahan
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
52.4% (853)
+0.2%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
58.6% (174)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
46.5% (144)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
54.7% (783)
53.4% (624)
Away
54.3% (816)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
55.9%
53.7%
P2
56.1%
52.4%
P3
51.1%
51.6%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.8%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 09:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:40 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:39 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |