Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (61% H2H, 36 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Monahan 51.3% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 54-48 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 57.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
54
(102 meetings)
48
54
Larkin
Monahan
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
13
Larkin
Monahan
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
18
19
Larkin
Monahan
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
14
22
Larkin
Monahan
36 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
51.1% (11,356)
+0.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
53.7% (2,580)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
46.0% (766)
+4.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
52.7%
50.9%
P2
53.1%
51.7%
P3
52.1%
51.0%
OT
58.4%
53.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |