Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 55.1%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Monahan 53.9% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 50.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 54.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Larkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Larkin
Monahan
Last 9: Larkin 4-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Monahan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Larkin
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Larkin
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
54.5% (231)
-0.9%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
58.2% (67)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
52.2% (23)
-3.5%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Monahan is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Home / Away
Larkin
Monahan
Home
56.6% (700)
53.5% (144)
Away
52.1% (655)
56.5% (177)
By Period
Larkin
Monahan
P1
55.4%
52.5%
P2
54.7%
50.9%
P3
52.7%
60.8%
OT
59.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 03:14 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |