Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.5% vs Lorentz 50.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 53.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.0%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Larkin
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
Lorentz
Last 5: Larkin 2-3 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
2
Larkin
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Lorentz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (562)
51.7% (292)
-2.2%
Power Play
51.5% (134)
40.0% (10)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (34)
42.9% (7)
-1.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Larkin is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Larkin shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lorentz
Home
48.5% (388)
52.3% (155)
Away
50.6% (342)
50.0% (154)
By Period
Larkin
Lorentz
P1
52.1%
59.2%
P2
46.9%
50.9%
P3
49.2%
43.2%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.5%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |