Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 60.9%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 53.5%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 57.4%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Larkin
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Larkin
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Larkin
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
48.9% (135)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
50.0% (4)
-3.8%
On even strength, Larkin has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Lorentz is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lorentz
Home
56.0% (654)
50.7% (75)
Away
54.8% (639)
46.9% (64)
By Period
Larkin
Lorentz
P1
54.4%
60.0%
P2
55.9%
46.3%
P3
55.2%
44.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |