Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Lorentz 50.0% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Larkin
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Larkin
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
52.2% (67)
-0.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
50.0% (2)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
42.9% (21)
+5.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Lorentz is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lorentz
Home
52.4% (647)
55.4% (65)
Away
52.7% (643)
36.0% (25)
By Period
Larkin
Lorentz
P1
52.2%
59.3%
P2
53.1%
47.1%
P3
51.7%
44.8%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |