Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 87.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 68.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Larkin
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Lorentz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
48.3% (497)
+5.3%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
63.6% (11)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
38.5% (39)
+10.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lorentz
Home
56.6% (700)
50.4% (238)
Away
52.1% (655)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Larkin
Lorentz
P1
55.4%
49.1%
P2
54.7%
48.0%
P3
52.7%
47.2%
OT
59.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |