Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 69.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Larkin
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Larkin
Lorentz
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Lorentz
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Lorentz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.9% (1,118)
+2.8%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
50.0% (26)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
41.9% (86)
+8.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Lorentz is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lorentz
Home
54.0% (6,238)
50.8% (606)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Larkin
Lorentz
P1
52.7%
53.0%
P2
53.1%
46.8%
P3
52.1%
46.1%
OT
58.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:15 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |