Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 32.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 45.5% vs Hertl 54.9% (-15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 71.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Hertl
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Larkin
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Larkin
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (81)
55.0% (382)
-14.3%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
59.7% (67)
-17.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 32.8% vs left-shot opponents (67).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
44.4% (45)
58.8% (221)
Away
38.2% (55)
53.4% (236)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
46.7%
52.6%
P2
39.3%
53.6%
P3
38.1%
62.4%
Final 5 min
27.3%
61.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
41.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2016 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2015 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2015 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2015 | 2 | 07:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |