Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Larkin
Hertl
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Larkin
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Larkin
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
57.0% (718)
-1.1%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
64.9% (188)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
44.2% (77)
+2.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
56.0% (654)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.8% (639)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
54.4%
56.3%
P2
55.9%
55.4%
P3
55.2%
60.5%
OT
64.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 07:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 03:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |