Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 25 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 47-42 in 89 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
42
(89 meetings)
47
42
Larkin
Hertl
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
19
18
Larkin
Hertl
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
13
14
Larkin
Hertl
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
15
10
Larkin
Hertl
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
59.3% (1,975)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
46.3% (806)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
54.0% (6,238)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
52.7%
53.6%
P2
53.1%
54.1%
P3
52.1%
55.3%
OT
58.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | OT | 01:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |