Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Hertl 52.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 59.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Larkin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
51.6% (1,084)
+0.2%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
61.0% (246)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
44.1% (136)
+3.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
55.6% (662)
55.2% (696)
Away
48.3% (542)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
49.9%
55.4%
P2
52.7%
54.8%
P3
53.0%
48.9%
OT
68.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2022 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 19:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2022 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |