Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.8%). Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Hertl 54.5% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 59.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Larkin
Hertl
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Larkin
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
0
Larkin
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
54.1% (1,117)
-0.5%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
59.8% (296)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
34.4% (32)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
56.6% (700)
54.3% (709)
Away
52.1% (655)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
55.4%
51.6%
P2
54.7%
53.6%
P3
52.7%
58.6%
OT
59.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
57.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 12:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:54 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 02:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |