Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Hertl 55.4% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 76.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Larkin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Larkin
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
54.1% (717)
-1.5%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
61.9% (210)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
58.1% (31)
-2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
54.7% (783)
58.1% (492)
Away
54.3% (816)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
55.9%
57.1%
P2
56.1%
54.0%
P3
51.1%
56.6%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |