Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 73.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
58.1% (823)
-6.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
56.2% (265)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
62.9% (35)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
52.4% (647)
59.7% (561)
Away
52.7% (643)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
52.2%
51.6%
P2
53.1%
63.8%
P3
51.7%
58.6%
OT
61.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | OT | 01:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |