Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 50.8%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.9% vs Hertl 50.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Larkin
Hertl
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Larkin
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,057)
51.5% (891)
-3.0%
Power Play
61.4% (140)
54.8% (135)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (117)
41.5% (130)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
51.4% (652)
52.6% (544)
Away
48.5% (662)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
49.1%
49.4%
P2
52.0%
51.7%
P3
48.0%
51.4%
OT
52.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.8%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2018 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 3 | 00:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 2 | 11:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 2 | 03:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 1 | 14:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 1 | 10:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2018 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2018 | 3 | 03:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |