Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Nosek 53.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 75.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Larkin
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Nosek
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
55.1% (557)
-3.3%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
50.0% (4)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
47.7% (111)
-0.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Nosek is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nosek
Home
55.6% (662)
52.3% (342)
Away
48.3% (542)
55.5% (330)
By Period
Larkin
Nosek
P1
49.9%
49.0%
P2
52.7%
53.8%
P3
53.0%
57.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 07:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 16:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:10 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |