Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Nosek 51.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.1%
Defensive zone
Nosek 56.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Larkin
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Larkin
Nosek
Last 6: Larkin 3-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Nosek
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Larkin
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Larkin
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
53.0% (400)
-0.4%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
33.3% (12)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
45.5% (44)
+10.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nosek
Home
54.7% (783)
49.6% (244)
Away
54.3% (816)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Larkin
Nosek
P1
55.9%
53.1%
P2
56.1%
51.4%
P3
51.1%
51.1%
Final 5 min
51.8%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |