Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Nosek 53.6% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 17-8 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 69.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Larkin
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
8
(25 meetings)
17
8
Larkin
Nosek
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
11
1
Larkin
Nosek
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
3
Larkin
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Larkin
Nosek
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
54.9% (2,674)
-3.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
44.7% (47)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
47.4% (424)
+2.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nosek
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Larkin
Nosek
P1
52.7%
52.3%
P2
53.1%
54.0%
P3
52.1%
54.6%
OT
58.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 07:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |