Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Nosek 58.0% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.0%
Defensive zone
Nosek 90.6%
Neutral zone
Nosek 71.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Larkin
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Larkin
Nosek
Last 7: Larkin 6-1 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
59.7% (469)
-6.1%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
100.0% (4)
-40.7%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
56.5% (124)
-7.8%
On power play, Nosek has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Nosek is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nosek
Home
56.6% (700)
59.0% (295)
Away
52.1% (655)
59.6% (302)
By Period
Larkin
Nosek
P1
55.4%
56.3%
P2
54.7%
61.9%
P3
52.7%
59.2%
OT
59.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |