Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Nosek 46.9% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 71.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 70.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Larkin
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larkin
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Larkin
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
48.5% (66)
+3.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
100.0% (1)
-41.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
29.6% (27)
+18.6%
On power play, Nosek has a +41.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Nosek is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (62).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nosek
Home
52.4% (647)
44.0% (25)
Away
52.7% (643)
43.5% (69)
By Period
Larkin
Nosek
P1
52.2%
46.4%
P2
53.1%
34.2%
P3
51.7%
53.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |