Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.4% vs 57.0%). Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lindholm wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.9% vs Hayes 56.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 53.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 54.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 63.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Lindholm
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Lindholm
Hayes
Last 6: Lindholm 1-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
5
Lindholm
Hayes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
57.3% (944)
56.6% (724)
+0.7%
Power Play
61.1% (162)
57.0% (79)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (230)
65.7% (35)
-16.6%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lindholm is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,080).
Lindholm shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Hayes
Home
55.2% (667)
58.0% (405)
Away
57.5% (669)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Lindholm
Hayes
P1
54.7%
54.7%
P2
55.5%
55.7%
P3
58.5%
60.2%
OT
64.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
56.4%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 16:41 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 01:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |