Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +19.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lindholm wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs Hayes 42.7% (+19.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 95.1%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 96.4%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 85.3%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 94.6%
94.6%
5.4%
Lindholm
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Lindholm
Hayes
Last 7: Lindholm 6-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Lindholm
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
5
0
Lindholm
Hayes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
0
Lindholm
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
31.9% (91)
+22.5%
Power Play
62.2% (164)
64.3% (14)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (83)
0.0% (1)
+49.4%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +49.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Lindholm shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Hayes
Home
55.8% (541)
30.6% (49)
Away
54.7% (428)
40.4% (57)
By Period
Lindholm
Hayes
P1
54.8%
22.9%
P2
55.7%
40.0%
P3
55.6%
44.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
30.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 09:55 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 12:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |