Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 32 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.8% vs Hayes 47.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 41-33 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 71.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 69.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 71.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 70.8%
29.2%
70.8%
Lindholm
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
41
(74 meetings)
33
41
Lindholm
Hayes
Last 10: Lindholm 6-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
10
22
Lindholm
Hayes
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
15
11
Lindholm
Hayes
26 total
Neutral Zone
Even
8
8
Lindholm
Hayes
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,505)
47.5% (6,708)
+6.3%
Power Play
59.3% (1,734)
51.7% (702)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (1,610)
45.3% (697)
+2.8%
On power play, Lindholm has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,111).
Lindholm shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Hayes
Home
54.1% (5,943)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
53.6% (5,906)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Lindholm
Hayes
P1
54.1%
47.5%
P2
54.5%
47.6%
P3
53.0%
47.9%
OT
53.6%
54.1%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
53.8%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 09:55 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 12:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:11 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 16:41 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 01:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |