Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 53.0%). Look for Lindholm on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 52.7% vs Sturm 52.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 73.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 71.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.9%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Lindholm
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Lindholm
Sturm
Last 9: Lindholm 5-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
4
0
Lindholm
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Lindholm
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Lindholm
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,156)
54.0% (480)
-1.6%
Power Play
59.6% (198)
28.6% (7)
+31.0%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (238)
50.0% (102)
-0.4%
On power play, Lindholm has a +31.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lindholm is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,221).
Lindholm shoots right. Sturm is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Sturm
Home
52.3% (771)
54.0% (287)
Away
53.5% (821)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Lindholm
Sturm
P1
50.7%
53.5%
P2
55.3%
51.0%
P3
54.0%
55.1%
OT
29.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
52.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:23 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 17:42 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 10:29 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |