Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 54.6%). Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lindholm wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs Sturm 53.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 81.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 64.8%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 56.9%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Lindholm
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lindholm
Sturm
Last 5: Lindholm 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Lindholm
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
54.6% (271)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (83)
54.4% (90)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Lindholm shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Sturm
Home
55.8% (541)
53.0% (168)
Away
54.7% (428)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Lindholm
Sturm
P1
54.8%
58.2%
P2
55.7%
53.2%
P3
55.6%
52.3%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:20 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |