Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.8%). Look for Lindholm on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lindholm wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.4% vs Sturm 55.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 73.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 69.1%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 54.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Lindholm
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Lindholm
Sturm
Last 10: Lindholm 6-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
1
Lindholm
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Lindholm
Sturm
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lindholm
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (1,124)
56.1% (716)
+1.6%
Power Play
52.9% (155)
67.7% (31)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (259)
51.1% (133)
-2.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lindholm is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,140).
Lindholm shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Sturm
Home
55.7% (760)
55.6% (412)
Away
55.8% (778)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Lindholm
Sturm
P1
53.7%
59.6%
P2
58.3%
52.0%
P3
55.1%
55.5%
OT
59.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 17:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 13:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 07:14 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 17:59 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 01:57 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |