Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.8% vs Sturm 56.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 20-17 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 71.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 60.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Lindholm
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
17
(37 meetings)
20
17
Lindholm
Sturm
Last 10: Lindholm 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
10
4
Lindholm
Sturm
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
8
Lindholm
Sturm
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Lindholm
Sturm
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,505)
57.1% (2,719)
-3.3%
Power Play
59.3% (1,734)
61.3% (62)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (1,610)
51.0% (498)
-2.9%
On even strength, Sturm has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,111).
Lindholm shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Sturm
Home
54.1% (5,943)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
53.6% (5,906)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Lindholm
Sturm
P1
54.1%
56.5%
P2
54.5%
54.9%
P3
53.0%
57.4%
OT
53.6%
60.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
53.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:20 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 17:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |