Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lindholm wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.9% vs Sturm 57.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 75.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 63.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 54.3%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Lindholm
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lindholm
Sturm
Last 5: Lindholm 2-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
1
Lindholm
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Lindholm
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (937)
62.1% (356)
-7.2%
Power Play
60.4% (265)
75.0% (4)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (172)
38.7% (62)
+10.7%
On power play, Sturm has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lindholm is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,115).
Lindholm shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Sturm
Home
54.4% (688)
61.8% (191)
Away
56.1% (686)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Lindholm
Sturm
P1
57.2%
58.0%
P2
54.3%
57.9%
P3
54.2%
60.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |