Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 46.2% vs Dowd 49.5% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 84.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.3%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Pettersson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Pettersson
Dowd
Last 10: Pettersson 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
4
0
Pettersson
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Pettersson
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pettersson
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (630)
53.4% (485)
-9.6%
Power Play
56.3% (215)
0.0% (2)
+56.3%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (103)
39.8% (186)
-3.9%
On power play, Pettersson has a +56.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pettersson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Pettersson shoots left. Dowd is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Dowd
Home
48.3% (453)
48.5% (307)
Away
43.4% (495)
50.3% (366)
By Period
Pettersson
Dowd
P1
44.7%
50.7%
P2
46.0%
49.1%
P3
46.4%
49.6%
OT
50.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▲
41.5%
45.8%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |