Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pettersson wins 38.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 44.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pettersson 79.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 72.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Pettersson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pettersson
Dowd
Last 5: Pettersson 3-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
1
0
Pettersson
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Pettersson
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pettersson
2
1
Pettersson
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (912)
55.2% (625)
-11.1%
Power Play
61.5% (39)
57.1% (7)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
34.8% (46)
38.2% (220)
-3.4%
On even strength, Dowd has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pettersson is 38.0% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Pettersson shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Dowd
Home
45.0% (489)
53.7% (445)
Away
43.7% (508)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Pettersson
Dowd
P1
46.0%
48.8%
P2
45.7%
49.3%
P3
42.2%
54.0%
OT
23.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
44.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 02:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 13:13 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:56 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |