Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Pettersson wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 46.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Pettersson leads 15-13 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 69.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 65.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 69.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Pettersson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
13
(28 meetings)
15
13
Pettersson
Dowd
Last 10: Pettersson 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
9
0
Pettersson
Dowd
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
9
Pettersson
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pettersson
5
4
Pettersson
Dowd
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (4,569)
52.4% (6,009)
-7.1%
Power Play
54.6% (540)
56.1% (164)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (238)
44.1% (1,635)
-5.4%
On even strength, Dowd has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pettersson is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,755).
Pettersson shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Dowd
Home
46.8% (2,734)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
45.1% (2,613)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Pettersson
Dowd
P1
44.7%
51.7%
P2
46.0%
50.4%
P3
47.4%
50.3%
OT
39.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
46.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
46.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |